Little Bear

I did not see a little bear while I was in the Teton National Park last week. However, I was warned that I might. A young black bear had been showing up around the home where I was staying in the days prior to my arrival. Even little bears can be dangerous, and our host was concerned that we could be harmed if the bear was surprised by us one morning. Hence the warning, but I was actually excited to see the bear and disappointed when I did not.

It is the responsibility of leadership to improve their community’s ability to respond to the future. Sometimes that means sounding the warning about potential dangers (like bears). Other times, it means painting a picture of an inspiring future (like bears). This would be easy if we could accurately predict the future. Unfortunately, we cannot.

My friend Mark Sanborn says, “In business as in life, the ability to predict the future is more of a mythical ideal than a practical skill. The essence of strategic leadership lies not in predicting the future perfectly but in preparing to meet it with agility and informed confidence.” Informed confidence. I want that. What can we do to anticipate the future rather than try to predict it?

Organizations that have a growth mindset see the uncertain and the unknown as space for opportunity and growth, unlike a fixed mindset which sees these as a threat. In a fixed mindset, people believe that future potential is fixed by present talents and skills. However, a growth mindset means we believe we can learn and adapt. A bear in the front yard can be scary or fascinating, depending on your mindset.

While we cannot predict the future, we can pay attention to trends. Seeing a bear once is an anomaly. Seeing a bear several days in a row is a trend. This is where having a diverse team and a culture that values differing viewpoints is important. You want a community that integrates different perspectives to increase the understanding of future potentials.

Rigid communities (composed of inflexible people and systems) miss opportunities because they cannot adapt quickly. Having the expectation that a bear could be outside each morning and embracing that possibility ensures we would be more likely to handle the challenge. Leaders should train and equip their teams with skills that foster adaptability to change and flexibility.

It never hurts to play pretend. Creating a variety of potential scenarios and then creating a plan for each one increases the ability to seize opportunities. While none of the exact scenarios may occur, the process of imagining and then responding to potential changes makes the response to what does happen more natural and effective. What would we do if the bear was in the yard? On the front porch? In the tree? (Hint: the answer, apparently, is never, “Feed it.”)

Fear and misinformation about technology, including machine intelligence, should not prevent us from utilizing the predictive insights advanced analytics provide. In an uncertain future, being able to make decisions quickly is critical. Machine intelligence and learning can find patterns and make predictions that are not readily apparent to humans and can increase our ability to anticipate the future. (Our bear relevant technology consisted of cell phones and bear spray…)

Finally, all of our experiences are opportunities to improve our future. Building resiliency into our community—so we don’t just recover from setbacks but use them to strengthen our flexibility—creates forward momentum during change. (I happen to have encountered a bear in the wild before.)

We cannot predict the future, good or bad. By focusing on a growth mindset, paying attention to trends, fostering flexibility, creating scenarios, utilizing technology, and building resiliency, we can foster a culture that values informed confidence for dealing with our “little bears.” Anticipating possibilities with informed confidence and actively preparing for them is better than our predictions, and it is the Bison Way.